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Large Russian offensive will end by April and will not be successful ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are convinced that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have overestimated the Russian military’s own capabilities again, and that is why his major offensive in eastern Ukraine in the spring rainy season will end prematurely and have no effect.

Source: ISW

Details: Andrii Cherniak, a representative of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency, told the Kyiv Post in an interview on February 1 that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian military to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023. Cherniak also stated that Russian forces are moving additional unspecified assault groups, units, weapons and military equipment to unspecified areas in eastern Ukraine.

“Putin may have overestimated the Russian military’s own capabilities again. ISW has found no evidence that Russian forces have regained sufficient combat capability to defeat Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture over 11,300 square kilometers of unoccupied Donetsk Territory (over 42 percent of Donetsk’s total area of ​​territory) prior to March as reportedly ordered by Putin,” stressed ISW.

According to preliminary estimates by the ISW, a major Russian offensive before April 2023 would likely culminate prematurely in the spring rainy season in April before achieving significant operational impact.

“The peak of Russian forces could then create favorable conditions for Ukrainian forces to exploit in their own counteroffensive in late spring or summer of 2023, after engaging Western tank supplies,” reads an ISW ​​report.

Background:

  • Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defense minister, said that on the anniversary of the 2022 invasion, Russia could launch an offensive on two fronts.

  • According to Bloomberg, Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning a new offensive in Ukraine despite huge casualties while preparing his country for years of confrontation with the US and its allies.

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