Tuesday, March 28, 2023
HomeufcUFC Fight Night Picks & Prediction: Best Longshot Bets (2022)

UFC Fight Night Picks & Prediction: Best Longshot Bets (2022)

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos will begin this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. Despite the unnumbered map, we have some awesome and fun matchups in store.

Below, I’ll go over my top two longshot prop bets for scoring this card. These games are each one unit or 1% of your betting bankroll.

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Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

UFC Fight Night Odds, Tips & Predictions: The Best Longshot Bets (11/5)

Tamires Vidal vs. Ramona Pascual

To kick off this event we have a catchweight (137lb) bout between Tamires Vidal and Ramona Pascual. Vidal is making her UFC debut and will look to continue her five-fight win streak.

Two of those wins came by submission, a trend that could continue into this fight. Vidal, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, is likely to win this fight on the mat, increasing the chances of a submission win.

Meanwhile, Pascual has had a lot of trouble since joining the UFC as she lost each of her two fights in that promotion via unanimous decision. Prior to joining the UFC, Pascual lost via submission (armbar).

The younger, more promising Vidal should have no problem winning this fight and the submission prop at over 4/1 is worth a try.

Tip: Tamires Vidal wins via submission (+420)

Jake Hadley versus Carlos Candelario

Immediately after the Vidal/Pascual fight we have another catchweight (128.5lb) fight between Carlos Candelario and Jake Hadley. Both guys are losing and looking for a way back into the Victory Column.

This fight will likely involve a good mix of martial arts as both guys can box and wrestle, but Hadley’s path to victory could be on her feet. With a two-inch range advantage, Hadley is a relatively strong favorite with some history of taking down opponents.

In his pro debut, Hadley defeated Daryl Grant in under a minute with Golden Ticket Fight Promotions. Five fights later, he defeated Shajidul Haque in the first round of the Cage Warriors promotion.

Meanwhile, Candelario has lost each of his last two fights in the UFC. Although he’s never been knocked out in his pro career, Candelario’s shot save is a problem as he absorbed 4.04 bpm with shot save at just 42%.

If he keeps getting clean hits then it’s not inconceivable that Hadley could knock him out at 15/2 it’s certainly worth a try.

Tip: Jake Hadley wins via KO/TKO (+750)

Much luck!

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Tony Sartori is a well-known author at BettingPros. For more from Tony see his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.


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